Outcomes and settlement

Your box wins if the price touches it during its window. Here is exactly what "touches" means, and how a result is decided. Every rule on this page is a guarantee: it is enforced by the code and covered by tests.

The price the result is based on

Practice results use the Strike mark price from Strike's public price stream, one update per second (nominal). The strikeabox server records every update it receives: the price and Strike's own timestamp for it. Results are computed from these recorded ticks only. Your phone's view of the chart plays no part.

The observed path

Take the recorded ticks in time order. Join each tick to the next with a straight line, but only if the two ticks are at most 2.5 seconds apart. Across a longer gap there is no line: nobody knows what the price did there.

This is the line the chart draws. The chart may draw it as a smooth curve, but only monotonically between consecutive ticks and through this line's own value at every column boundary, so it never shows a price outside the two ticks it joins, and the boxes it touches are exactly the boxes this line touches.

Ticks that fail the quality checks are treated as gaps

A tick can arrive and still not be trustworthy. The server stores every tick it receives, but flags a tick, and leaves it out of the chart, the quotes and settlement, when:

• its price is not a positive number;
• its timestamp is more than 2 seconds ahead of the time the server received it, or more than 10 minutes behind it;
• its mark price moved more than 1.5 % from the previous accepted tick, when that tick is no more than 2.5 seconds earlier;
• its mark price differs from Strike's own index price by more than 5 %.

A flagged tick behaves exactly like a gap: no line is drawn through it. A box that could only have been decided by a flagged tick is therefore void and refunded, not lost. guarantee

The same protection covers the clock. The server uses its own clock for cutoffs and Strike's timestamps for results, so if Strike's clock drifts more than 2 seconds from ours (the median over the last 30 ticks), the market is treated as stale until it recovers. Nothing is quoted and no tap is accepted meanwhile. A tick that is already more than 3 seconds old when it arrives never makes the market count as fresh.

The three outcomes

Your box is a band [low, high] during a window [start, end]. The window is 10 seconds long.

Won

Your box is won if any point of the observed path with a time inside the window, start and end included, has a price inside the band, edges included.

• A tick exactly on the band edge counts.
• The line between two ticks counts. If one tick is below your box and the next is above it, the line crosses your box, and that is a touch, even though neither tick is inside.
• A win is decided the moment it is observed. You don't wait for the window to end.

DiagramThe line enters the box inside the window: a touch on the box edge counts. Dots are recorded ticks, one per second; the line is drawn only between ticks at most 2.5 s apart. Result: Won.

DiagramNeither tick is inside the box, but the straight line between them crosses it. Dots are recorded ticks, one per second; the line is drawn only between ticks at most 2.5 s apart. Result: Won.

Lost

Your box is lost if the window ended without a touch and the window is fully covered:

• there is a tick at or before the window start,
• there is a tick at or after the window end,
• and there is no gap longer than 2.5 seconds between the ticks that span the window.

DiagramTicks cover the whole window and the line never reaches the box. Dots are recorded ticks, one per second; the line is drawn only between ticks at most 2.5 s apart. Result: Lost.

Only the part of the path inside the window counts. A touch just before the start or just after the end doesn't.

DiagramThe price is in the box before the window starts and after it ends, but not during it. Dots are recorded ticks, one per second; the line is drawn only between ticks at most 2.5 s apart. Result: Lost.

Void: your stake back

Your box is void, and your stake is refunded in full, if the window ended without a touch and coverage is incomplete (a real gap, or a flagged tick). It is also void if the outcome still can't be decided 30 seconds after the window ends, measured on the server's clock from the window end, not from when a worker happens to run.

Missing evidence never becomes a loss.

DiagramA gap longer than 2.5 s inside the window and no touch: not enough evidence. Dots are recorded ticks, one per second; the line is drawn only between ticks at most 2.5 s apart. Result: Void · stake refunded.

Note what void does not cover: if the path touches your box anywhere in the window, you win, even if there is a gap somewhere else in the same window.

Payout

Outcome	Credits back	Net shown
Won	stake × multiplier, rounded down to the hundredth, stake included	payout − stake, e.g. +4.50
Lost	nothing	− stake, e.g. −10.00
Void	the stake	0.00

The multiplier is the one you saw when you tapped. It is locked at acceptance and can't be changed by anyone afterwards. guarantee

How settlement runs

Settlement runs on the server's background worker. It doesn't need your browser, your phone or the app to be open. guarantee

• Every time a tick is recorded, the worker checks open boxes on that market whose window contains it, and settles wins immediately.
• Each box also has a durable settlement job, due 2.5 seconds after its window ends. The worker polls for due jobs every second. If a worker crashes mid-job, the job is picked up again after its 30-second lease expires.
• A box can be settled once. The state change from Accepted to Won, Lost or Void is a guarded update, done in the same database transaction as the credit movements. Two workers, a restart or a replay can't settle it twice.
• A result is decided from the ticks stored at the moment of settlement, and that moment is on the receipt. A settled box is never reopened: a tick that arrives later cannot change it.

No operator can change a box's terms or settle it by hand. Admins can only pause new taps. Every result comes from recorded evidence.

Receipts

Every settled box has a receipt. It shows:

• the terms: market, band, window, stake and multiplier;
• the quote inputs: the price the box was priced from (S0), the volatility used (sigma) and the model probability (p);
• the ticks used, from the last tick at or before the window start to the first tick at or after the window end;
• the decisive evidence: the first touch, or the gap that caused a void.

With the receipt you can re-check the result yourself with the rules on this page. The evidence is stored with the box, so it stays checkable after the server prunes old ticks: raw ticks are kept for at least 24 hours (7 days by default), and ticks around a box that is still open are never pruned.

Replays

Every settled box also has a public replay at /r/<id>. It is built from the stored terms and evidence, so it can't change after the fact. Share it as a link; it comes with a preview image. See Replays and sharing.